Exam 1

1. Metainformation

   Tag	Value
   file	Inferential_Statistics_uva-bayesian-statistics-973-en_uva-bayesian-statistics-973-en
   name	uva-bayesian-statistics-973-en
   section	Inferential Statistics/Bayesian Statistics
   type	schoice
   solution	FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, TRUE
   Type	Conceptual
   Language	English
   Level	Statistical Literacy
   IRT-Difficulty	2
   p-value	0.7741

   Question

   Suppose it is known that 0.002 of Dutch women have disease D has. There is a test to detect this disease. That test is not always reliable: in 0.04 of the cases in which the subject has the person has the disease, the test gives the result “no disease = negative result. In other words, 0.96 of them are discovered with a positive result. In other words, 0.96 of the people who do not have the disease get a negative result. Marja is told that she has a negative test result.

   Set the events:

   • G = No disease D.
   • N = The negative test result.

   Then what is the probability P(G and N)?

   
   
   1. FALSE: 0,0019
   2. FALSE: 0,0008
   3. FALSE: 0,0399
   4. TRUE: 0,9581
   
   
   1. 0,0019: Incorrect
   2. 0.0008: Incorrect
   3. 0.0399: Incorrect
   4. 0.9581: Correct