Exam 1

  1. Metainformation

    Tag Value
    fileInferential_Statistics_uva-bayesian-statistics-971-en_uva-bayesian-statistics-971-en
    nameuva-bayesian-statistics-971-en
    sectionInferential Statistics/Bayesian Statistics
    typeschoice
    solutionFALSE, TRUE, FALSE, FALSE
    TypeConceptual
    LanguageEnglish
    LevelStatistical Literacy
    IRT-Difficulty2.24
    p-value0.4977

    Question

    Suppose it is known that a proportion of 0.002 of Dutch women have disease D. There is a test to detect this disease. That test is not always reliable: in 0.04 of the cases in which the person has the disease, the test gives the result “no disease” with a negative result. And 0.96 of them are detected with a positive result. Furthermore: in 0.96 of those who do not have it, the test gives a negative result. Marja is told that she has a negative test result.

    Set the events:

    Then what is the probability P(D and N) that Marja gets a negative test result and she also has the disease?


    1. FALSE: 0,0019
    2. TRUE: 0,0008
    3. FALSE: 0,0399
    4. FALSE: 0,9581

    1. 0,0019: Incorrect
    2. 0.0008: Correct
    3. 0.0399: Incorrect
    4. 0.9581: Incorrect